EVENT SHELL
politicsWill the number of Trump rallies be above
If the number of Trump rallies is above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
6
VENUES
6
VOL 24H
$1.0K
OPEN INT
$5.6K
FRESHNESS
STALE
12633502S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?89%40 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?25%20 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?78%30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?59%35 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?42%25 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?66%
REGIMEdegraded (6/6)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the number of Trump rallies is above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3509h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
88.5%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — sin██████ ███
WHY NOW
No ████ ████ ██████ █████ ███
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 7.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE ins██████ ███
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Official government action and filing path
FOCUS
Official government action and filing path
WATCH
2 ITEMS
SOURCES
2
ACCESS
PUBLIC SUMMARY
WATCH
Latest official action from the relevant institution
Any filing or vote that changes the resolution path
SOURCES
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
6 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 3509H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
RESOLUTION INTELLIGENCE
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