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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
21
VENUES
21
VOL 24H
$118
OPEN INT
$1.3K
FRESHNESS
LIVE
107S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
6.00%?15%5.75%?20%5.00%?31%5.50%?27%5.25%?19%4.75%?21%4.50%?36%4.25%?29%4.00%?46%3.75%?44%3.50%?59%2.75%?68%2.50%?71%3.25%?59%3.00%?63%2.00%?69%2.25%?63%1.75%?68%1.25%?69%1.50%?69%1.00%?79%
REGIMEthin book (11/21)normal (10/21)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 6.00%?

·
CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then...

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 8s AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
15.0%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 2.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 15cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE15c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF07:11 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 4C
8%
4C - 10C
18%
10C - 15C
28%
15C - 21C
30%
21C - 26C
12%
ABOVE 26C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
6.00%?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
21 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 2M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment