EVENT SHELL
otherWill the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
21
VENUES
21
VOL 24H
$0
OPEN INT
$2.2K
FRESHNESS
STALE
1691454S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
6.00%?9%5.75%?15%5.00%?29%5.50%?37%5.25%?30%4.75%?26%4.50%?37%4.25%?44%4.00%?50%3.75%?47%3.50%?47%2.75%?76%2.50%?69%3.25%?44%3.00%?67%2.00%?68%2.25%?69%1.75%?69%1.25%?80%1.50%?80%1.00%?86%
REGIMEdegraded (21/21)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 6.00%?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then...
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 470h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
9.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — sin██████ ███
WHY NOW
No ████ ████████ █████ ████ █
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 14.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE ins████████ █
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
PUBLIC SUMMARY
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
6.00%?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
21 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 470H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
RESOLUTION INTELLIGENCE
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