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tech

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$181
OPEN INT
$8.4K
FRESHNESS
RECENT
417S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
REGIMEnormal (1/1)
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

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CAUTIONMIXED DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

TECH · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 7m AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
13.2%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.
BEST BUY
BEST SELL
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 13cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE13c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF08:50 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 2C
18%
2C - 13C
28%
13C - 24C
30%
24C - 36C
12%
ABOVE 36C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
CATALYST ETA
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
No category context available.
FOCUS
WATCH
0 ITEMS
SOURCES
0
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 7M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment