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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
17
VENUES
17
VOL 24H
$0
OPEN INT
$569
FRESHNESS
STALE
1174750S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
6.00%?14%5.75%?23%5.50%?24%3.75%?43%3.50%?43%3.25%?54%3.00%?49%2.75%?42%2.50%?67%2.25%?48%2.00%?59%4.25%?37%4.00%?37%4.50%?34%4.75%?34%5.00%?31%5.25%?30%
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
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OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above 6.00%?

·
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then...

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 326h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
13.5%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — sin████████ █
WHY NOW
No ██████ ████ ████████ ████
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 15.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE ins████████ █
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
PUBLIC SUMMARY
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
6.00%?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
17 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 326H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
RESOLUTION INTELLIGENCE
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