EVENT SHELL
politicsWill the margin of victory for
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 4th District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
9
VENUES
42
VOL 24H
$0
OPEN INT
$1.3K
FRESHNESS
STALE
1368999S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?22%Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?27%Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?32%Republicans in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?51%Democrats in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?37%Democrats in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?44%Republicans in the New York's 24th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?16%Republicans in the New York's 24th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?12%Republicans in the New York's 24th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?23%
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 380h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
13.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 4.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 13cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE13c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF14:06 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 2C
8%
2C - 8C
18%
8C - 13C
28%
13C - 19C
30%
19C - 24C
12%
ABOVE 24C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
1
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
9 tracks
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 380H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment