←Back to markets ←Open markets ←Open selected market

EVENT SHELL

other

Will Ed Sheeran be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?

If Ed Sheeran is #1 on IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES

VENUES

VOL 24H

OPEN INT

$3.5K

FRESHNESS

STALE

12633569S LAG

STATUS

ACTIVE

PROBABILITY

Will Ed Sheeran be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Sabrina Carpenter be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Mrs. GREEN APPLE be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Adele be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Lady Gaga be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will SZA be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?1%Will Billie Eilish be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will BTS be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?72%Will Zach Bryan be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Justin Bieber be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Bad Bunny be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Kendrick Lamar be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?23%Will Drake be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?6%Will Eminem be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?1%Will Linkin Park be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Stray Kids be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will SEVENTEEN be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Morgan Wallen be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will Tyler, The Creator be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?2%Will The Weeknd be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?3%

OUTCOME PROBABILITIES

LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...

OUTCOME LADDER

SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE

MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Ed Sheeran be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?

OPEN KALSHI··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If Ed Sheeran is #1 on IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3509h AGO

CORE VERDICTS

YES

2.0%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — sin█████ ████

WHY NOW

No ████████ ████████ ██████

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Tightest spread is 4.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE ins████ ████ █

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

PUBLIC SUMMARY

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE