EVENT SHELL
politicsWill the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 10th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 10th District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
2
VOL 24H
$0
FRESHNESS
STALE
8675350S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 10th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 kalshi contracts — showing best representative
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2410h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
75.5%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — sin████████ █
WHY NOW
No ███████ █████ ████ ██████
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 7.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE ins█████ ████
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
PUBLIC SUMMARY
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 10th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 2410H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
RESOLUTION INTELLIGENCE
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