MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 polymarket contracts — showing best representative

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

62.5%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Best buy route is POLYMARKET. Best sell route is POLYMARKET. Visible depth is $703. Tightest spread is 1.0¢.

BEST BUY

POLYMARKET · 1.0¢

BEST SELL

POLYMARKET · 1.0¢

VISIBLE DEPTH

$703

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 63cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE63c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF08:07 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 40C

40C - 51C

18%

51C - 63C

28%

63C - 74C

30%

74C - 85C

12%

ABOVE 85C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

FOCUS

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov House Clerk Votes Senate Roll Call Votes

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LINKED CONTRACT LINES (2) · POLYMARKET

Click a contract row to focus it here. Use POLY to open the native venue.

POLY

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

62.5%

SPREAD

1.0¢

VOL 24H

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 3M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

RULES

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

Legislative-process context for this market.

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov

House Clerk Votes

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

5mo 8d

TOTAL VOL 24H

TOTAL DEPTH

$703

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-05-28 08:07 UTC

DERIVED

LIVE · 2026-05-28 08:07 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 08:07 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-28 08:07 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 08:07 UTC

IMPLIED YES

62.5%

SPREAD 1.0¢

VOL 24H $6

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

1.0¢

DEPTH

$703

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·3.7%·F55

1K·4.0%·F35

10K·4.0%·F4

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

FILL 35%

POLY BOOK

$703 · ASK HEAVY

SPREAD

1.0¢

BALANCE

1 / 99

FILL

35%

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

1.92%

SELL SLIPPAGE

3.97%

SPREAD·1.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·35%

BUY SLIPPAGE·1.92%

SELL SLIPPAGE·3.97%

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS