MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 polymarket contracts — showing best representative

CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

TECH · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 4m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

0.1%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Tightest spread is 0.1¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 1cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE1c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF09:43 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 1C

28%

1C - 12C

30%

12C - 24C

12%

ABOVE 24C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? · 1 venue

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

LUCIDEX DERIVEDLive-quote bars built from venue updates

VENUEPOLY

MOVE+0.0%

RANGE0.1%–0.1%

FRESH47m

PRICEMID

LINKED CONTRACT LINES (2) · POLYMARKET

Click a contract row to focus it here. Use POLY to open the native venue.

POLY

LOADING CHART RUNTIME

Initializing interactive chart surface.

Lucidex is booting the chart engine after the main terminal shell so quote, spread, and depth can hydrate first.

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 4M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

ORDER BOOK DEPTH · POLYMARKETSTALE

LIVE ORDER BOOK

UPDATED 09:43:34 UTC

BIDS

0.1%$19

——

ASKS

0.2%$29

0.3%$3

0.6%$6

0.8%$3

0.9%$15

1.0%$50

1.2%$0

1.4%$0

1.5%$1

1.6%$2

1.8%$1

2.0%$1

BID $19ASK $1.7M

EXECUTION TICKET

Preparing routing, guardrails, and account context...

UPDATED 09:43:34 UTC

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

RULES

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

No external context available for this market category.

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

1mo 2d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$270

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-05-28 09:43 UTC

DERIVED

LIVE · 2026-05-28 09:43 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 09:43 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-28 09:43 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 09:43 UTC

IMPLIED YES

0.1%

SPREAD 0.1¢

VOL 24H $270

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

0.1¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

0.1¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·0.1¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS