MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS
Resolution rule: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 380h AGO
RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.
CORE VERDICTS
YES
20.5%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
MULTIEvent Ladder
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LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 5.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 21cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE21c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF14:06 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 9C
8%
9C - 15C
18%
15C - 21C
28%
21C - 26C
30%
26C - 32C
12%
ABOVE 32C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
VENUEKLSH
MOVE—
RANGE—
FRESHUNKNOWN
PRICEUNKNOWN
LOADING CHART...
HISTORY BUILDING
Candle history has not accumulated yet.
Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.
YES
20.5%
SPREAD
5.0¢
VOL 24H
$0
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 380H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS