MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 961h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

17.0%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 17cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE17c

LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF20:32 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 6C

6C - 12C

18%

12C - 17C

28%

17C - 23C

30%

23C - 28C

12%

ABOVE 28C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

GENERIC

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

FOCUS

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official government or alliance statements

Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates

Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording

SOURCES

U.S. State Department United Nations CSIS

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

17.0%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

—

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 961H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

GEOPOLITICS CONTEXT

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

Geopolitics and conflict-monitoring context for this market.

WATCH

Official government or alliance statements

Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates

Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording

SOURCES

U.S. State Department

United Nations

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

5mo 15d

TOTAL VOL 24H

—

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

DERIVED

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 20:32 UTC

IMPLIED YES

17.0%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $0

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS