MARKET OVERVIEW

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 polymarket contracts — showing best representative

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 961h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

7.0%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 7cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE7c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF20:32 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 7C

28%

7C - 18C

30%

18C - 30C

12%

ABOVE 30C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · 2 venues

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

LUCIDEX DERIVEDLive-trade bars built from venue updates

1 FRAMEOnly one confirmed frame is available for this interval.

VENUEPOLY

MOVE+0.0%

RANGE7.0%–7.0%

FRESH962h

LINKED CONTRACT LINES (2) · POLYMARKET

Click a contract row to focus it here. Use POLY to open the native venue.

POLY

LOADING CHART RUNTIME

Initializing interactive chart surface.

Lucidex is booting the chart engine after the main terminal shell so quote, spread, and depth can hydrate first.

SPARSETrade coverage is thin for this interval, so the live-derived frame stays visible with limited structure.

1 FRAMEOnly one confirmed frame is available while history fills in.

YES 7.0%

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 961H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

ORDER BOOK DEPTH · POLYMARKETSTALE

LIVE ORDER BOOK

UPDATED 20:34:36 UTC

BIDS

6.0%$8

5.0%$22

4.0%$27

3.0%$35

2.0%$44

1.0%$18

——

ASKS

8.0%$9

9.0%$56

11.0%$44

12.0%$1

13.0%$45

20.0%$17

22.0%$7

25.0%$11

27.0%$47

29.0%$38

34.0%$109

39.0%$2

BID $153ASK $122K

EXECUTION TICKET

Preparing routing, guardrails, and account context...

UPDATED 20:34:36 UTC

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

No external context available for this market category.

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

30d 1h

TOTAL VOL 24H

$254

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

DERIVED

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:30 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 20:32 UTC

IMPLIED YES

7.0%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $254

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS