MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Xan John be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 962h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

24.1%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 24cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE24c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF20:32 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 2C

2C - 13C

18%

13C - 24C

28%

24C - 35C

30%

35C - 47C

12%

ABOVE 47C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

FOCUS

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov House Clerk Votes Senate Roll Call Votes

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

Will Xan John be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? · 1 venue

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

LUCIDEX DERIVEDLive-trade bars built from venue updates

1 FRAMEOnly one confirmed frame is available for this interval.

VENUEPOLY

MOVE+0.0%

RANGE24.1%–24.1%

FRESH963h

LOADING CHART RUNTIME

Initializing interactive chart surface.

Lucidex is booting the chart engine after the main terminal shell so quote, spread, and depth can hydrate first.

SPARSETrade coverage is thin for this interval, so the live-derived frame stays visible with limited structure.

1 FRAMEOnly one confirmed frame is available while history fills in.

YES 24.1%

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 962H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

ORDER BOOK DEPTH · POLYMARKETSTALE

LIVE ORDER BOOK

UPDATED 17:59:24 UTC

BIDS

23.1%$13

23.0%$23

22.0%$30

20.0%$10

17.7%$1

15.5%$31

15.4%$154

15.3%$46

15.1%$32

15.0%$208

14.0%$49

13.0%$13

ASKS

25.7%$2

25.8%$7

28.8%$9

28.9%$34

32.3%$16

32.4%$16

32.8%$8

32.9%$7

33.0%$33

37.0%$32

42.6%$43

46.4%$46

BID $1KASK $48K

EXECUTION TICKET

Preparing routing, guardrails, and account context...

UPDATED 17:59:24 UTC

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

Legislative-process context for this market.

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov

House Clerk Votes

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

EXPIRED

TOTAL VOL 24H

$146

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:31 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 20:32 UTC

IMPLIED YES

24.1%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $146

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS