EVENT SHELL
geopolitics

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$625.0K
OPEN INT
$56.7K
FRESHNESS
STALE
3458390S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

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CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between...

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 961h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
92.5%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
MODERATE
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · SPORTS GAME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
MODERATE
Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.
BEST BUY
BEST SELL
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 93cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE93c
LIQUIDITYNORMAL
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF20:32 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 82C
8%
82C - 87C
18%
87C - 93C
28%
93C - 98C
30%
98C - 99C
12%
ABOVE 99C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
CATALYST ETA
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification
FOCUS
Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official government or alliance statements
Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates
Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
MODE
VENUE
VIEW
INTERVAL
RANGE
VENUEPOLY
MOVE
RANGE
FRESHUNKNOWN
PRICEUNKNOWN
LOADING CHART...
HISTORY BUILDING
Candle history has not accumulated yet.
Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.
YES
92.5%
SPREAD
VOL 24H
$625K
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 961H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment