Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Odds on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Hyperliquid | Lucidex

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between...

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 961h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

92.5%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

MODERATE

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

SPORTSSports Terminal

FAMILY DEGRADATION / MEDIUM

no game start time

Game start time unavailable — time-aware guards disabled

GEOPOLITICS GAME STATE

Start time unknown

MATCHUP

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

KICKOFF

Start time unknown

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · SPORTS GAME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

MODERATE

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 93cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE93c

LIQUIDITYNORMAL

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF20:32 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 82C

8%

82C - 87C

18%

87C - 93C

28%

93C - 98C

30%

98C - 99C

12%

ABOVE 99C

4%

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

GENERIC

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

FOCUS

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

3

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official government or alliance statements

Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates

Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording

SOURCES

U.S. State Department United Nations CSIS

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

0

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

92.5%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

$625K

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 961H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

VISUAL ANALYTICS

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

GEOPOLITICS CONTEXT

Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification

Geopolitics and conflict-monitoring context for this market.

WATCH

Official government or alliance statements

Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates

Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording

SOURCES

U.S. State Department

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

EXPIRED

TOTAL VOL 24H

$625K

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

DERIVED

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue