MARKET OVERVIEW

Will weekly jobless claims exceed 360K for the week ending on July 17?

CAUTIONWEAK DATALOW CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 360,000 for the week ending on Saturday, July 17, 2021.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

OTHER · DEGRADED COVERAGEDATA 903h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDLOW CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

INSUFFICIENT

NOW WAITINGHORIZON 48H

Bracket distribution unavailable until current price evidence is present.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICEWAITING

LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHUNKNOWN

AS OF20:32 UTC

COVERAGEDEGRADED COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

Waiting on current probability missing.

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

CURRENT PROBABILITY MISSING · BLOCK · BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

—

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

—

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

FRESHNESS UNKNOWN

Coverage degraded

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

RULES

This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 360,000 for the week ending on Saturday, July 17, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 360,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 17, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 360,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 17, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, July 17, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, July 22, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If data is not available for the aforementioned dates by Wednesday, July 28, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

No external context available for this market category.

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

EXPIRED

TOTAL VOL 24H

—

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation. Slice integrity score is low (20).

QUOTES

MISSING · No timestamp available

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-20 20:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATADEGRADED COVERAGEAS OF 20:32 UTC

IMPLIED YES

—

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $0

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

N/A

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS