MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?

OPEN KALSHI··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 382h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

13.0%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

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LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Tightest spread is 4.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 13cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE13c

LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF14:06 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 2C

2C - 8C

18%

8C - 13C

28%

13C - 19C

30%

19C - 24C

12%

ABOVE 24C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Official election administration and filing path

FOCUS

Official election administration and filing path

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings Election Assistance Commission Can I Vote

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 24 percentage points? · 3 venues

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEKLSH

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

13.0%

SPREAD

4.0¢

VOL 24H

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 382H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 4th District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Official election administration and filing path

Election and ballot context for this market.

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings

Election Assistance Commission

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

17mo 14d

TOTAL VOL 24H

—

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

15 DAYS

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-05-12 14:06 UTC

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

STALE · 2026-05-12 14:03 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-12 14:06 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

KLSH · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 14:06 UTC

IMPLIED YES

13.0%

SPREAD 4.0¢

VOL 24H $0

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

4.0¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

KLSH BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

4.0¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·4.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS